Trade Bait: The Pitchers
Scrolling through my posts, you might reach the conclusion I only talk about faith or politics. Au contraire!
My first love in life was the Philadelphia Phillies. And like any unrequited love, there has been more pain than joy, but because of that, those brief moments of returned affection is that much sweeter! This is why Phillies fans are better than Yankees fans. It's easy to love a team that's given you 28 rings, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Yogi Berra, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter.
Yeah, well try loving a team that has two rings in about 130 years of existence (both of which are from the last 35 years).
Either way, I'm getting off-topic a bit. We suck this year. Way more than I had imagined. I figured we'd stick around .500 this year, but pathetic years by Domonic Brown (I said we should have traded him at the deadline last year when he still had value) and whoever is playing third, paired with injuries to Cliff Lee and Mike Adams, and a bullpen that has made me utter the phrase "oh please let our starter go eight" more times than I can remember has made that a pipe dream.
So it's June 10 and we have the worst record in the National League and the second worse in all of baseball. It's time to think trades, because, maybe, finally, the front office will recognize it's time to sell and rebuild. So here are my thoughts on possible trade bait and the potential locations and hauls they could receive:
Cliff Lee
When was the last season that Lee wasn't discussed in a possible trade deadline move?
The problem here is Lee's injured elbow. And a pretty big contract. Lee has been on the DL since May 19 and yet to start throwing, but hopefully will begin that soon. Prior to hitting the DL, Lee was off to a solid start, giving up more than 3 earned runs in only one of his seven starts, with an ERA just north of 3.00. The contract might not be an issue if not for the arm injury. Lee is owed $25 million in 2015 with a vesting option for $27.5 that may become guaranteed based off innings pitched, or a buyout of $12.5 million. Still, if healthy by July, there may be no other pitcher capable of single game dominance in the way that Cliff Lee is capable. Lee is the kind of guy who can carry you into the playoffs, through the playoffs, and down whatever major road your World Series parade chooses to follow. For that, you can receive a decent haul.
Possible matches...
Baltimore: Currently 5.5 game back in the division and 1.5 in the wild card, the Orioles are in the thick of things, but have the sixth worst team ERA in baseball. Chris Tillman has not been the ace the O's have needed, Ubaldo Jimenez has been his typically inconsistent self, and Bud Norris, though having a decent year, is not the kind of guy to carry a pitching staff. The Orioles could usesomeone who knows how to lead and how to win. Lee would be a great option.
Possible pieces: RHP Hunter Harvey (A), LHP Tim Berry (AA), 1B Christian Walker (AA), RHP Ofelky Peralta (A), and RHP Jon Keller (A)
The Phils can demand a lot for Lee, and this could be a great chance to make up for the last time we traded Lee. Harvey, Berry, and Peralta might be too highly prized by the Orioles, but if they want to win now, they'll need to give up a couple pitchers not yet ready to contribute. The Phils should be able to get two of the names above with a third throw-in player of either the middle relief or utility variety.
LAA: The Angels and Rangers (below) seemingly battle for Cliff Lee's services every year! The Angels are currently tops in the wild card race and are only 3.5 games back in the AL West. Jared Weaver, Garrett Richards, and C.J. Wilson have are all off to very good starts this season, which leads me to believe they might not be willing to offer too much for Lee. However, you can never have enough starting pitching, and Lee might be the true ace they are lacking.
Possible pieces: LHP Hunter Green (Rookie), RHP R.J. Alvarez (AA), 2B Alex Yarbrough (AA), RHP Mike Morin (AAA), OF Zach Borenstein (AAA), RHP Cam Bedrosian (AA), 2B Kody Eaves (A)
There probably isn't one name listed that makes anyone leap out of their seats in excitement. However, the Phils would have the opportunity to pick up a relief pitcher who could help as soon as next year in either Morin or Bedrosian, find an possible heir apparent for Utley in Yarbrough or Eaves, and get a near MLB-ready OF talent from a team overloaded in OF at the big league level.
Texas: A Rangers-Lee reunion? The Rangers would need a turnaround soon for anything to develop here. They are below .500 and 8 games back of the A's in the AL West and have seven teams in front of them for the wild card. But the team can hit, and if you can hit, you have a chance, and a 1-2 punch of Darvish and Lee would be pretty formidable in the playoffs.
Possible pieces: 3B Joey Gallo (AA), OF Nick Williams (A), RHP Alex Gonzalez (AA), RHP Luke Jackson (AA), OF Lewis Brinson (A), OF Nomar Mazara (A), RHP Alex Asher (A), 2B Travis Demeritte (A), RHP Keone Kela (AA), 2B Chris Bostick (A)
Is there any wonder about the success of both Texas's A-ball teams?! Gallo and Gonzalez were just promoted to AA, but as you can see a lot of the Rangers' talent is at the lower levels. This could work to the Phils' advantage. The Rangers have some older players and may think this is a great chance to win it all. If they're interested in Lee, the Phils may have a nice selection of prospects to choose from.
Toronto: The Blue Jays are 5th in team hitting but 19th in team pitching. They lead the AL West by 5.5 games and will desperately need pitching to finish off the season and make a run in the playoffs. R.A. Dickey has not panned out for them as the ace they had hoped. Mark Buerhle has been outstanding and Drew Hutchison has been a pleasant surprise. Adding Lee to the rotation could be the boost this team needs to leave the O's, Yankees, and Red Sox all in the dust.
Possible pieces: RHP Aaron Sanchez (AA), RHP Marcus Stroman (MLB), LHP Daniel Norris (A), LHP Sean Nolin (AAA), 1B Rowdy Tellez (Rookie), OF Dalton Pompey (A)
The Blue Jays don't have a great farm system at the moment, which might give them hesitation to pulling off a deal. However, they haven't played in a playoff game since some scrub hit a blooper over the outfield wall to squeak out a win over the Phillies in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. Desperation can lead to some bold moves. The should be able to land two solid pitching prospects and maybe add Tellez (who has yet to play pro ball but has and awesome name) and/or Pompey.
Final thoughts: If he's healthy, he's gone. I gotta think he's going to Toronto. They have a good lead with great hitting, but really need an ace in the rotation. I think they should be able to land of Stroman, as well as Nolin and
Pompey.
Cole Hamels
Pretty much see everything written for Cliff Lee. Hamels might bring a better haul because he's younger and is a former World Series MVP. On the other hand, Lee has demonstrated his ability to dominate for 9 innings far more often than Hamels, which bring the bonus of resting the bullpen a little more. Either way, I think the same teams interested in Lee are interested in Hamels, and the same prospects should be targetted.
Final thoughts: If Lee is healthy enough to be traded, I think Hamels stays. One thing I've learned is that if you want to keep the fans interested during a rebuilding process, you need to have a stud on the rubber every five days. Hamels is guaranteed through 2018 with an option for 2019. At only 30, he could still be a top-notch starter in a couple years when this team competes again.
Roberto Hernandez/Kyle Kendrick
Neither of these guys have been terribly impressive this year, but they have both been able to turn in good outings. In the case of Kendrick, he has even demonstrated the occasional ability in his career to shut down an opposing team. Both Kendrick and Hernandez could be a decent 4 or 5 starter in a rotation, both could be a team's long reliever, and neither are signed past 2014. We probably would not get much in return for either, but here are a couple thoughts:
Baltimore: As I mentioned earlier, the Orioles are just outside the playoff picture. Their team bullpen ERA is only 19th in all of baseball and their rotation certainly has holes. I could easily see them making a minor move in acquiring Kendrick or Hernandez.
Possible pieces: Keller, RHP Branden Kline (A), OF Dariel Alvarez (AA), RHP Oliver Drake (AA), RHP Marcel Prado (AA)
The best the Phils can probably do here is get Drake or Prado, both guys who may be able to help out the bullpen in a couple years.
Detroit: Detroit may be first in the AL Central, but they are 21st in team pitching and dead last in bullpen ERA. Kendrick or Hernandez may offer a band aid for the remainder of the season, potentially playing an integral role in a playoff run.
Possible pieces: RHP Jose Valdez (AA), RHP Austin Kubitza (A), RHP Corey Knebel (AA), LHP Casey Crosby (AAA)
Probably any one of these guys would be available, but more likely Knebel or Kubitza.
Texas: The Rangers' bullpen has only managed an ERA of 4.46 on the season, better than only four other teams so far. Kendrick or Hernandez could offer either immediate help in the back end of the rotation or in the bullpen as inning eaters.
Possible pieces: Bostick, RHP Sam Wolff (A), LHP Jimmy Reyes (AA), RHP Wilmer Font (AA), RHP Ryan Bores (AA)
Wouldn't you love to acquire Wolff with the possibility of reviving the Wolfpack fanclub? Again, the Phils will be looking to add an arm.
Toronto: I've already spoken about Toronto's pitching woes. They have three decent starters they can get by on if they keep hitting, but the relief pitching is abysmal, at 28th in the league, and no bullpen in all of MLB has given up more runs. Adding one of these veteran arms could be a cheap way to do some patch-work prior to the playoffs.
Possible pieces: RHP Tom Robson (A), RHP Adonys Cardona (A), OF Darin Mastroianni (AAA), OF Anthony Gose (AAA), OF Mike Crouse (AA), RHP Randy Boone (AA), RHP Dustin Antolin (AA)
The Blue Jays are still the most desperate for pitching of all the potential playoff teams, so they might overpay a bit. We might be able to get one of their journeyman-former prospect outfielders along with a reliever.
Final thoughts: Either Kendrick or Hernandez will be dealt at the deadline, presumably whoever is pitching better. Most likely Kendrick will be able to maintain a moderate level of success, and he is a cheaper option than Hernandez. Toronto again seems like a great fit, and may be even packaged with Lee. Without Lee in the picture, Kendrick should be able to net the team an minor league outfielder, and Mastroianni or Gose seem like a good fit (Phillies-Gose reunion?) They may even be able to add some pitching in either Boone or Antolin as well.
Jonathan Papelbon
Everyone was sure Papelbon would be traded at the deadline last year, and he was definitely going to Detroit. Well that didn't happen. But after a rocky start, Papelbon has been incredible. Also, any suitors have one less year of that ridiculous contract to pay for. So while the Phillies may be stuck paying some of his salary, it's become far more likely that someone will be willing to trade for him.
Baltimore: This probably depends on whether the Orioles feel confident with Zach Britton moving forward. Britton was once a highly touted prospect, so it's possible the closer position could be locked down. Otherwise, Tommy Hunter has demonstrated he's not the best option for the 9th and Baltimore will be looking for help.
Possible pieces: Harvey, Berry, Walker, Peralta, Keller, Kline, Alvarez, Drake, Prado
It's hard to get a read on what exactly we could get for Papelbon. I think we might be able to get one of their better pitching prospects like Harvey, Berry, or Kline, along with a reliever like Drake or Prado.
Chicago (AL): The ChiSox are on the outside looking in right now, but they are only 3.5 games back in the division and 2.5 back in the wild card. If they make a move, they may very well be looking to shore up the back end of the bullpen, as the combination of Matt Lindstrom and Ronald Belisario isn't going to cut it. In the end, I have my doubts that a team on the bubble goes all in for a high-priced player who pitches one inning every couple games, even if he does it as well as Paps been doing it.
Possible pieces: 2B Micah Johnson (AAA), RHP Tyler Danish (A), RHP Chris Beck (AA), 2B/SS Carlos Sanchez (AAA), RHP Andrew Mitchell (A), RHP Francellis Montas (A), LHP Scott Snodgress (AA)
I don't see the White Sox willing to give up enough to get a closer when they aren't right in the middle of a playoff race. If things heat up and they get a little closer by the end of July they might pull the trigger.
Cleveland: It's an exciting time to be an Indians fan! They are sticking right near the Tigers and are only 1.5 games back in the wild card. There are talented young players, and it would be a shame to miss out on the playoffs because of too many blown saves. I see more interest coming from Cleveland than either Baltimore or Chicago.
Possible pieces: OF Tyler Naquin (AA), 2B/SS Jose Ramirez (AAA), 2B Joe Wendle (AA), LHP Kyle Crockett (AAA), RHP Austin Adams (AAA)
If Cleveland can't settle on a closer by the trade deadline, this could be the move they need to make. They are hitting well and are getting good starting pitching. If they see themselves only a game or two out, are they really going to risk the 9th inning on a regular basis? The Phils should be able to get one of the secondbase prospects in Ramirez and Wendle, along with either Crockett and Adams if Cleveland pulls the trigger.
Detroit: Is it 2013 again? Though the Tigers are in the middle of a funk right now, they still control there own destiny. They are hitting well and getting good enough starting pitching, but Joe Nathan has not looked good and is getting worse. The Tigers have been close the last few years and may sense a little urgency. This could be the year they finally get Papelbon.
Possible pieces: Valdez, Kubitza, Knebel, 2B Devon Travis (AA), RHP Jake Thompson (A), RHP Jonathon Crawford (A), 2B/SS Hernan Perez, RHP Drew VerHagan (AAA), LHP Kevin Ziomek (A), OF Tyler Collins (AAA), OF Steven Moya (AA)
The Tigers certainly are plentiful when it comes to a possible return for Paps. They Phils would have a selection of pitchers to choose from, both at the lower and upper levels and both as starters and relievers. In addition, they could add a secondbasemen to their system in either Travis or Perez or go for outfield depth in Collins or Moya.
Oakland: Is Sean Doolittle the answer? It's too early to tell, but he's certainly pitching like he is. Should he struggle, they will be in desperate need of a closer after the whole Jim Johnson thing didn't work out.
Possible pieces: RHP Raul Alcantara (AA, recently had Tommy John surgery), 2B Chad Pinder (A), OF D'Arby Myers (AA), 2B Colin Walsh (AAA), OF Billy Burns, (AA), RHP Jeremy McBryde (AAA), LHP Jeff Urlaub (AAA)
The Phils have experience exactly how bad you can be when your bullpen is just terrible. Yes, we would still have a losing record with an improved bullpen, but it wouldn't be nearly this pathetic. The Phils could look into McBryde and Urlaub, not necessarily top prospects but both guys who are dealing in AA right now. In addition, they could find their future secondbasemen in Pinder and add an outfielder with Myers or Burns. Ultimately, it will all depend on Doolittle. If he keeps shutting down guys in the 9th, there will be no reason to move anyone to get Papelbon.
Final thoughts: Cleveland may very well be the team that lands Papelbon, but for now I'll say that the Tigers go all in and move major pieces to shore up the bullpen to win it all in 2014. In return, Philly will get Travis, Thompson, and VerHagan. This balances both a lack of a secondbase prospect, gives them a top pitching prospect a couple years away, and a pitching prospect that could help as soon as next year. This will be overpaying for Papelbon, but the Tigers are going to be desperate at the trade deadeline the Phils will find themselves willing to pay a chunk of Papelbon's salary.
My first love in life was the Philadelphia Phillies. And like any unrequited love, there has been more pain than joy, but because of that, those brief moments of returned affection is that much sweeter! This is why Phillies fans are better than Yankees fans. It's easy to love a team that's given you 28 rings, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Yogi Berra, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Whitey Ford, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter.
Yeah, well try loving a team that has two rings in about 130 years of existence (both of which are from the last 35 years).
Either way, I'm getting off-topic a bit. We suck this year. Way more than I had imagined. I figured we'd stick around .500 this year, but pathetic years by Domonic Brown (I said we should have traded him at the deadline last year when he still had value) and whoever is playing third, paired with injuries to Cliff Lee and Mike Adams, and a bullpen that has made me utter the phrase "oh please let our starter go eight" more times than I can remember has made that a pipe dream.
So it's June 10 and we have the worst record in the National League and the second worse in all of baseball. It's time to think trades, because, maybe, finally, the front office will recognize it's time to sell and rebuild. So here are my thoughts on possible trade bait and the potential locations and hauls they could receive:
Cliff Lee
When was the last season that Lee wasn't discussed in a possible trade deadline move?
The problem here is Lee's injured elbow. And a pretty big contract. Lee has been on the DL since May 19 and yet to start throwing, but hopefully will begin that soon. Prior to hitting the DL, Lee was off to a solid start, giving up more than 3 earned runs in only one of his seven starts, with an ERA just north of 3.00. The contract might not be an issue if not for the arm injury. Lee is owed $25 million in 2015 with a vesting option for $27.5 that may become guaranteed based off innings pitched, or a buyout of $12.5 million. Still, if healthy by July, there may be no other pitcher capable of single game dominance in the way that Cliff Lee is capable. Lee is the kind of guy who can carry you into the playoffs, through the playoffs, and down whatever major road your World Series parade chooses to follow. For that, you can receive a decent haul.
Possible matches...
Baltimore: Currently 5.5 game back in the division and 1.5 in the wild card, the Orioles are in the thick of things, but have the sixth worst team ERA in baseball. Chris Tillman has not been the ace the O's have needed, Ubaldo Jimenez has been his typically inconsistent self, and Bud Norris, though having a decent year, is not the kind of guy to carry a pitching staff. The Orioles could usesomeone who knows how to lead and how to win. Lee would be a great option.
Possible pieces: RHP Hunter Harvey (A), LHP Tim Berry (AA), 1B Christian Walker (AA), RHP Ofelky Peralta (A), and RHP Jon Keller (A)
The Phils can demand a lot for Lee, and this could be a great chance to make up for the last time we traded Lee. Harvey, Berry, and Peralta might be too highly prized by the Orioles, but if they want to win now, they'll need to give up a couple pitchers not yet ready to contribute. The Phils should be able to get two of the names above with a third throw-in player of either the middle relief or utility variety.
LAA: The Angels and Rangers (below) seemingly battle for Cliff Lee's services every year! The Angels are currently tops in the wild card race and are only 3.5 games back in the AL West. Jared Weaver, Garrett Richards, and C.J. Wilson have are all off to very good starts this season, which leads me to believe they might not be willing to offer too much for Lee. However, you can never have enough starting pitching, and Lee might be the true ace they are lacking.
Possible pieces: LHP Hunter Green (Rookie), RHP R.J. Alvarez (AA), 2B Alex Yarbrough (AA), RHP Mike Morin (AAA), OF Zach Borenstein (AAA), RHP Cam Bedrosian (AA), 2B Kody Eaves (A)
There probably isn't one name listed that makes anyone leap out of their seats in excitement. However, the Phils would have the opportunity to pick up a relief pitcher who could help as soon as next year in either Morin or Bedrosian, find an possible heir apparent for Utley in Yarbrough or Eaves, and get a near MLB-ready OF talent from a team overloaded in OF at the big league level.
Texas: A Rangers-Lee reunion? The Rangers would need a turnaround soon for anything to develop here. They are below .500 and 8 games back of the A's in the AL West and have seven teams in front of them for the wild card. But the team can hit, and if you can hit, you have a chance, and a 1-2 punch of Darvish and Lee would be pretty formidable in the playoffs.
Possible pieces: 3B Joey Gallo (AA), OF Nick Williams (A), RHP Alex Gonzalez (AA), RHP Luke Jackson (AA), OF Lewis Brinson (A), OF Nomar Mazara (A), RHP Alex Asher (A), 2B Travis Demeritte (A), RHP Keone Kela (AA), 2B Chris Bostick (A)
Is there any wonder about the success of both Texas's A-ball teams?! Gallo and Gonzalez were just promoted to AA, but as you can see a lot of the Rangers' talent is at the lower levels. This could work to the Phils' advantage. The Rangers have some older players and may think this is a great chance to win it all. If they're interested in Lee, the Phils may have a nice selection of prospects to choose from.
Toronto: The Blue Jays are 5th in team hitting but 19th in team pitching. They lead the AL West by 5.5 games and will desperately need pitching to finish off the season and make a run in the playoffs. R.A. Dickey has not panned out for them as the ace they had hoped. Mark Buerhle has been outstanding and Drew Hutchison has been a pleasant surprise. Adding Lee to the rotation could be the boost this team needs to leave the O's, Yankees, and Red Sox all in the dust.
Possible pieces: RHP Aaron Sanchez (AA), RHP Marcus Stroman (MLB), LHP Daniel Norris (A), LHP Sean Nolin (AAA), 1B Rowdy Tellez (Rookie), OF Dalton Pompey (A)
The Blue Jays don't have a great farm system at the moment, which might give them hesitation to pulling off a deal. However, they haven't played in a playoff game since some scrub hit a blooper over the outfield wall to squeak out a win over the Phillies in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. Desperation can lead to some bold moves. The should be able to land two solid pitching prospects and maybe add Tellez (who has yet to play pro ball but has and awesome name) and/or Pompey.
 |
| Stroman |
Final thoughts: If he's healthy, he's gone. I gotta think he's going to Toronto. They have a good lead with great hitting, but really need an ace in the rotation. I think they should be able to land of Stroman, as well as Nolin and
Pompey.
Cole Hamels
Pretty much see everything written for Cliff Lee. Hamels might bring a better haul because he's younger and is a former World Series MVP. On the other hand, Lee has demonstrated his ability to dominate for 9 innings far more often than Hamels, which bring the bonus of resting the bullpen a little more. Either way, I think the same teams interested in Lee are interested in Hamels, and the same prospects should be targetted.
Final thoughts: If Lee is healthy enough to be traded, I think Hamels stays. One thing I've learned is that if you want to keep the fans interested during a rebuilding process, you need to have a stud on the rubber every five days. Hamels is guaranteed through 2018 with an option for 2019. At only 30, he could still be a top-notch starter in a couple years when this team competes again.
Roberto Hernandez/Kyle Kendrick
Neither of these guys have been terribly impressive this year, but they have both been able to turn in good outings. In the case of Kendrick, he has even demonstrated the occasional ability in his career to shut down an opposing team. Both Kendrick and Hernandez could be a decent 4 or 5 starter in a rotation, both could be a team's long reliever, and neither are signed past 2014. We probably would not get much in return for either, but here are a couple thoughts:
Baltimore: As I mentioned earlier, the Orioles are just outside the playoff picture. Their team bullpen ERA is only 19th in all of baseball and their rotation certainly has holes. I could easily see them making a minor move in acquiring Kendrick or Hernandez.
Possible pieces: Keller, RHP Branden Kline (A), OF Dariel Alvarez (AA), RHP Oliver Drake (AA), RHP Marcel Prado (AA)
The best the Phils can probably do here is get Drake or Prado, both guys who may be able to help out the bullpen in a couple years.
Detroit: Detroit may be first in the AL Central, but they are 21st in team pitching and dead last in bullpen ERA. Kendrick or Hernandez may offer a band aid for the remainder of the season, potentially playing an integral role in a playoff run.
Possible pieces: RHP Jose Valdez (AA), RHP Austin Kubitza (A), RHP Corey Knebel (AA), LHP Casey Crosby (AAA)
Probably any one of these guys would be available, but more likely Knebel or Kubitza.
Texas: The Rangers' bullpen has only managed an ERA of 4.46 on the season, better than only four other teams so far. Kendrick or Hernandez could offer either immediate help in the back end of the rotation or in the bullpen as inning eaters.
Possible pieces: Bostick, RHP Sam Wolff (A), LHP Jimmy Reyes (AA), RHP Wilmer Font (AA), RHP Ryan Bores (AA)
Wouldn't you love to acquire Wolff with the possibility of reviving the Wolfpack fanclub? Again, the Phils will be looking to add an arm.
Toronto: I've already spoken about Toronto's pitching woes. They have three decent starters they can get by on if they keep hitting, but the relief pitching is abysmal, at 28th in the league, and no bullpen in all of MLB has given up more runs. Adding one of these veteran arms could be a cheap way to do some patch-work prior to the playoffs.
Possible pieces: RHP Tom Robson (A), RHP Adonys Cardona (A), OF Darin Mastroianni (AAA), OF Anthony Gose (AAA), OF Mike Crouse (AA), RHP Randy Boone (AA), RHP Dustin Antolin (AA)
The Blue Jays are still the most desperate for pitching of all the potential playoff teams, so they might overpay a bit. We might be able to get one of their journeyman-former prospect outfielders along with a reliever.
Final thoughts: Either Kendrick or Hernandez will be dealt at the deadline, presumably whoever is pitching better. Most likely Kendrick will be able to maintain a moderate level of success, and he is a cheaper option than Hernandez. Toronto again seems like a great fit, and may be even packaged with Lee. Without Lee in the picture, Kendrick should be able to net the team an minor league outfielder, and Mastroianni or Gose seem like a good fit (Phillies-Gose reunion?) They may even be able to add some pitching in either Boone or Antolin as well.
Jonathan Papelbon
Everyone was sure Papelbon would be traded at the deadline last year, and he was definitely going to Detroit. Well that didn't happen. But after a rocky start, Papelbon has been incredible. Also, any suitors have one less year of that ridiculous contract to pay for. So while the Phillies may be stuck paying some of his salary, it's become far more likely that someone will be willing to trade for him.
Baltimore: This probably depends on whether the Orioles feel confident with Zach Britton moving forward. Britton was once a highly touted prospect, so it's possible the closer position could be locked down. Otherwise, Tommy Hunter has demonstrated he's not the best option for the 9th and Baltimore will be looking for help.
Possible pieces: Harvey, Berry, Walker, Peralta, Keller, Kline, Alvarez, Drake, Prado
It's hard to get a read on what exactly we could get for Papelbon. I think we might be able to get one of their better pitching prospects like Harvey, Berry, or Kline, along with a reliever like Drake or Prado.
Chicago (AL): The ChiSox are on the outside looking in right now, but they are only 3.5 games back in the division and 2.5 back in the wild card. If they make a move, they may very well be looking to shore up the back end of the bullpen, as the combination of Matt Lindstrom and Ronald Belisario isn't going to cut it. In the end, I have my doubts that a team on the bubble goes all in for a high-priced player who pitches one inning every couple games, even if he does it as well as Paps been doing it.
Possible pieces: 2B Micah Johnson (AAA), RHP Tyler Danish (A), RHP Chris Beck (AA), 2B/SS Carlos Sanchez (AAA), RHP Andrew Mitchell (A), RHP Francellis Montas (A), LHP Scott Snodgress (AA)
I don't see the White Sox willing to give up enough to get a closer when they aren't right in the middle of a playoff race. If things heat up and they get a little closer by the end of July they might pull the trigger.
Cleveland: It's an exciting time to be an Indians fan! They are sticking right near the Tigers and are only 1.5 games back in the wild card. There are talented young players, and it would be a shame to miss out on the playoffs because of too many blown saves. I see more interest coming from Cleveland than either Baltimore or Chicago.
Possible pieces: OF Tyler Naquin (AA), 2B/SS Jose Ramirez (AAA), 2B Joe Wendle (AA), LHP Kyle Crockett (AAA), RHP Austin Adams (AAA)
If Cleveland can't settle on a closer by the trade deadline, this could be the move they need to make. They are hitting well and are getting good starting pitching. If they see themselves only a game or two out, are they really going to risk the 9th inning on a regular basis? The Phils should be able to get one of the secondbase prospects in Ramirez and Wendle, along with either Crockett and Adams if Cleveland pulls the trigger.
Detroit: Is it 2013 again? Though the Tigers are in the middle of a funk right now, they still control there own destiny. They are hitting well and getting good enough starting pitching, but Joe Nathan has not looked good and is getting worse. The Tigers have been close the last few years and may sense a little urgency. This could be the year they finally get Papelbon.
Possible pieces: Valdez, Kubitza, Knebel, 2B Devon Travis (AA), RHP Jake Thompson (A), RHP Jonathon Crawford (A), 2B/SS Hernan Perez, RHP Drew VerHagan (AAA), LHP Kevin Ziomek (A), OF Tyler Collins (AAA), OF Steven Moya (AA)
The Tigers certainly are plentiful when it comes to a possible return for Paps. They Phils would have a selection of pitchers to choose from, both at the lower and upper levels and both as starters and relievers. In addition, they could add a secondbasemen to their system in either Travis or Perez or go for outfield depth in Collins or Moya.
Oakland: Is Sean Doolittle the answer? It's too early to tell, but he's certainly pitching like he is. Should he struggle, they will be in desperate need of a closer after the whole Jim Johnson thing didn't work out.
Possible pieces: RHP Raul Alcantara (AA, recently had Tommy John surgery), 2B Chad Pinder (A), OF D'Arby Myers (AA), 2B Colin Walsh (AAA), OF Billy Burns, (AA), RHP Jeremy McBryde (AAA), LHP Jeff Urlaub (AAA)
The Phils have experience exactly how bad you can be when your bullpen is just terrible. Yes, we would still have a losing record with an improved bullpen, but it wouldn't be nearly this pathetic. The Phils could look into McBryde and Urlaub, not necessarily top prospects but both guys who are dealing in AA right now. In addition, they could find their future secondbasemen in Pinder and add an outfielder with Myers or Burns. Ultimately, it will all depend on Doolittle. If he keeps shutting down guys in the 9th, there will be no reason to move anyone to get Papelbon.
Final thoughts: Cleveland may very well be the team that lands Papelbon, but for now I'll say that the Tigers go all in and move major pieces to shore up the bullpen to win it all in 2014. In return, Philly will get Travis, Thompson, and VerHagan. This balances both a lack of a secondbase prospect, gives them a top pitching prospect a couple years away, and a pitching prospect that could help as soon as next year. This will be overpaying for Papelbon, but the Tigers are going to be desperate at the trade deadeline the Phils will find themselves willing to pay a chunk of Papelbon's salary.
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