2019 Phillies Roster Projection
I haven't posted in awhile, and what I have today is neither religion nor politics. It's baseball! The Phils have been streaky this year, but there are certainly some highlights, including Cesar Hernandez and Aaron Altherr, and to a lesser extent, Zach Eflin. Still too many questions remain around potential future pieces such as Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco, Aaron Nola, and Vincent Velasquez. Are they all fixtures for the future? Some of them? None of them?
It's well known that the Phillies have an above average list of prospects and money to burn. The general theory is that in 2019 the Phillies will begin a new chapter of being a perennial contender. With it being two years away, I wanted to take some time and project my 2019 Phillies roster. I'll get right to it, but will then show my work below, with consideration of all the in organization and free agent options that will reveal themselves between now and April 2019.
2019 PHILLIES ROSTER
Starting Pitchers
Zach Eflin
Jerad Eickhoff
Dallas Keuchel (L)
Jake Thompson
Nick Pivetta
Relief Pitchers
Ryan Madson
Hector Nerris
Ricardo Pinto
Edubray Ramos
Marc Rzepcyznski (L)
Joely Rodriguez (L)
Vincent Velasquez
Catchers
Jorge Alfaro
Andrew Knapp (S)
Infield
J.P. Crawford (L)
Rhys Hoskins
Scott Kingery
Jed Lowrie (S)
Manny Machado
Brock Stassi (L)
Outfield
Aaron Altherr
Odubel Herrera (L)
Andrew McCutchen
Cam Perkins
Nick Williams (L)
Opening Day Lineup
2B Kingery
CF Herrera (L)
1B Hoskins
3B Machado
RF Altherr
C Alfaro
LF McCutchen
SS Crawford (L)
P Keuchel
"Methodology"
Starting Pitchers
There is a litany of in-house options to consider here. I only see four of them sticking around, and I would expect only three rotations spots sooner than all five. Eickhoff seems to be a lock at this point. He's been a reliable workhorse ever since he debuted in Philly and will still only be 28. Eflin is mostly projection, but when he's been healthy he has pitched very well at the major league level. Thompson is more of a shot in the dark. He has dominated AAA between last year and this, but was awful with the Phils last year. I don't think that is what to expect to him. My other in-house choice is Pivetta, which I'm not 100% confident on. However, he has decent stuff, and I'll take him over all the other organizational choices. That includes Aaron Nola.
I really like Nola, but he has not been able to stay healthy. I have a hard time not seeing the Phillies going into 2019 knowing they can compete and sticking with a talented, but oft injured (with a funky delivery) pitcher. Mark Appel, Ben Lively, Ricardo Pinto, and Velasquez were all considerations as well. Lively and Pinto are the most likely possibilities to supplant Pivetta, but I see Pinto moving to the bullpen and Lively pitching for another team. Hopefully Appel will be a relief pitcher somewhere else and I'll come back to Velasquez later.
So I see one starting pitcher coming to the 2019 through free agency, and I've gone with Keuchel. This rotation will need a lefty, and the only real options after this seasons are Hector Santiago and Francisco Liriano. I'm pretty wary of Liriano's inconsistencies, though I'm intrigued by Santiago who is having an excellent year. Would they want to sign someone who is 30 years old and wait two or three years for contention and hope it works out? I happen to think the Phils are more likely to sign a free agent pitcher prior to the 2019 season. Other starting pitchers that could be considered before next year include Jake Arrieta, Trevor Cahill, Andrew Cashner, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn. In addition to the timing question, all of these guys are righties.
The 2019 class is really impressive, and includes five lefty possibilities, including Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Drew Pomeranz, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Drew Smyly. My thought is that the Phils aren't going to want someone just to fill out the rotation, which eliminates Ryu and Smyly. Keuchel won the Cy Young just two years ago, is having an impressive 2017 so far, and will still only be 31 in 2019. The biggest knock is that the front office has made it clear they aren't interested in big, long-term deals for pitchers. Keuchel will probably be able to command one somewhere. I still think between the money the organization will have, the need for an ace (and a lefty) will bring Keuchel to Philly. If not, Gonzalez and Pomeranz are realistic possibilities. Yu Darvish will also be a free agent at this time, but he's a RHP.
Relief Pitchers
Selecting a bullpen two years out is pretty difficult. More than any other position, you're evaluating not only the position itself, but others within the organization that could switch to this position. Meaning, I'm not only evaluating in-house relievers, but starters that could transition. On top of that, you'll see that my 2019 bullpen only has three holdovers from the current squad: Hector Nerris, Edubray Ramos, and Joely Rodriguez. All three are young, talented, and under team control at least until 2022. Neris might be the closer, but I'm actually going to say he will be setting up Vincent Velasquez. I know, I know, everyone is saying Velasquez will be closing sooner or later. I'm on board with the theory, because he's got filthy, nasty, unhittable stuff...but keeps getting hit. One theory says to let him be Nolan Ryan, but at this point it seems it would be better for the team and his career to let him close out games. A lot of great closers were once starters that couldn't put it all together. Within the organization, I also think Ricardo Pinto will be around, having been moved from starter to reliever. I took him over Lively, Nola, and Appe, all of whom I believe will be with other teams. Other in-house options I considered included Luis Garcia, Pat Neshek, Pat Venditte, and Tom Windle. None made the cut.
I don't believe we will see the Phils bring in much in the ways of free agency after this season, but options include Tyler Clippard, Tommy Hunter, Brandon Kintzler, Jake McGee, Juan Nicasio, Addison Reed, and Drew Storen. Out of that group, McGee is the only lefty. Of the in-house relievers I've chosen so far, only Rodriguez is a lefty.
However, the 2019 free agency class will draw a lot of Phillies attention. I went with one lefty and one righty. The lefty is Marc Rzepcyznski who has been pitching very well for Seattle this year, and I reunite the Phils with righty Ryan Madson. Madson is an insurance policy to close or set up in case Velasquez or Neris falter. The 2019 class has a lot of options, though, including Andrew Miller. Miller has turned into such a stud that some people forget he's not actually the closer in Cleveland, Cody Allen is (who also becomes a free agent in 2019). Someone is going to overpay for the left-handed Miller, and I hope it's not the Phils. Two other free agent lefties include former Phillie Jake Diekman and Sean Doolittle, both reasonable options as well. Free agent RHPs include Allen, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Nate Jones, Shawn Kelly, Adam Ottavino, and Junichi Tazawa. I tend to believe that either Neris or Velasquez will nail down the closers role, which leaves Allen, Britton, and Familia out. The rest are good options, and it's entirely plausible one of them is signed instead of Madson.
Catchers
I think this position is pretty straight forward. Jorge Alfaro is the catcher of the future. He's hitting well in AAA and has a cannon for an arm. The real question is who will be his backup? Knapp is hitting decent in the majors right now, and I think his youth and being a switch-hitter gives him the edge over Rupp. If Rupp stuck around to back up Alfaro, I wouldn't be shocked, but Knapp has the edge.
It's not completely out of the question that the Phils bring in a veteran free agent catcher, though. It won't be this off season, as I'm sure they will want to give Rupp or Knapp a shot at backing up Alfaro. If that doesn't work out, prior to the 2019 season the Phils could consider Tyler Flowers or Hector Sanchez, who would both bring in extensive experience with not awful bats.
Infield
The starting first baseman will be either Tommy Joseph or Rhys Hoskins. Count me on Team Hoskins. I don't want to write off Joseph, but Hoskins brings a much higher ceiling. In 29 AAA games this year, Hoskins is hitting .337with 8 HRs and sports a 1.087 OPS. On top of that, since about midway through last season he has significantly cut down the strikeouts. This season, he has only 17 of them to go along with 14 walks. Joseph, after hitting 20 HRs last year in limited play, is off to an awful 2017 start. He's only hitting .218 and has on OBP below .300. The power is lacking too, with only 2 HRs and a .341 SLG. I still believe Joseph could be a guy who regularly hits between .250 and .260 with 25-30 HRs, which is respectable. He's a resilient player whose career seemed over at one point. I want him to be successful. The problem is less of what Joseph can do, but more about what Hoskins can do. Hoskins projects to be the better hitter, and is a natural first basemen (Joseph is still new to the position). Joseph has the potential to give some pop to the middle of the order. Hoskins has the potential to be a player that transforms the entire lineup.
Secondbase is tricky, but I'm going with Scott Kingery. He dominated at Clearwater last year and is doing the same at Reading this year. His homeruns are up, but that is likely reflective of playing in a tiny ballpark like FirstEnergy Stadium. Still, he's a guy who can hit for average, draws walks, steals bases, and hits doubles. I could care less whether he hits 10 HRs or 25 HRs, as that's not his game. However, there is an argument to be made for Cesar Hernandez, who deserves All Star recognition this year. He's hitting .333 with an OBP of .373. He's currently second in the NL in hits and fourth in runs, and only turns 27 later this month. However, these numbers are out of line with his career. This is his fifth season, and he's a career .283 hitter with an OBP of .353. Both these numbers are respectable and prove he deserves to be a starting second baseman at the major league level, but this post is all about projection. This season seems to be an anomaly, and the Phils would be wise to trade him by August. It would be easier to do this if they promote Kingery sooner rather than later to see what he can do against AAA pitching. Jesmuel Valentin is another option, but he seems more likely to be a utility player at the top level.
I don't care how awful the start of his season was, J.P. Crawford is the future starting shortstop for the Philadelphia Phillies. Even if he isn't the next Derek Jeter, we've been waiting on this to happen and he'll get his chance. The talent is there, and he's already started to turn his season around, raising his average from .089 to .151 in just a couple weeks. He's also walking more and striking out less, which has always been a major part of his game. Freddy Galvis will be a Phillie next year, but that's it. He may take over second if Hernandez is traded this year and the organization feels Crawford can handle himself. I think Galvis is good enough to start at shortstop or secondbase for other teams, and I'll miss him, but he's not the future at either position in Philly.
Obviously I went outside of the organization for a superstar third baseman. Franco just isn't the answer, although I do believe he's playing better than his 2017 stat line suggests. Maybe Franco can be a .260 or .270 hitter with 30 HRs, but that's still pales to what Manny Machado is capable of. Machado is straight up gonna get PAID between the 2018 and 2019 season. Common thought suggests that it's either going to be the Phils or the Yankees, with Bryce Harper signing with the other team (I'll discuss Harper more shortly). Franco doesn't become a free agent until 2022, so expect a trade after next season.
For the bench, I have Brock Stassi and Jed Lowrie. Stassi hasn't exactly excelled at the major league level yet, but he has a couple homerun and is drawing walks in his limited playing time. I think the bat will come around to go along with superb defense at first and his ability to play left as well. Lowrie can play all around the infield and will be a free agent after this season, with a lot of that experience at shortstop. He would be a great backup plan in case Crawford struggles and has a lot of playoff experience. Erick Aybar is a free agent after this season as well. This job could reasonably go to in-house options like Andrew Blanco or Jesmuel Valentin, but neither have as much experience at short. If the Phils wait until 2019 to see what Valentin can do, they could consider Jordy Mercer or Sean Rodriguez.
Outfield
Odubel Herrera is a lock. His average is a little lower this season so far, but I imagine it will be back around .280 or .290 by the end of the season. He's also turning into a Gold Glove centerfielder. Crazy. I've been a fan of Aaron Altherr for some time, but he's just either been injured or not quite able to put it all together. Ever since Howie Kendrick went down, Altherr has been electric. He's hitting for average, hitting for power, stealing bases, has a cannon for an arm, and can play all three outfield positions. He needs to show this year and next year he can do this over an entire season. If he does, he's a lock to start in 2019 as well.
Left field was the hardest to decide on. Current organizational options include Nick Williams, Dylan Cozens, Roman Quinn, Andrew Pullin, and Carlos Tocci. I'm not sold on any of them. Williams has bounced back okay from a very disappointing 2016, but the power hasn't developed and he walks to little while striking out too much. Cozens turned heads after a stellar 2016 in Reading, but between striking out way too much and playing in, again, tiny FirstEnergy Stadium, it was difficult to project his future. This season he's striking out a ton, but with an anemic average and fewer homeruns. Quinn has also disappointed in AAA this season, while Pullin is stuck in AA waiting to get promoted. He's regularly injured, so it's hard to tell what his future holds. Tocci has zero power, though he's hitting better and plays great outfield.
So I decided to look at free agency for the third outfield position. After this season, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and J.D. Martinez are all available, but I don't think they'll bring in a free agent that quickly. Next season will be about seeing what Altherr, Cozens, Quinn, and Williams can do. However, I think that will result in signing someone prior to the 2019 season. The big name is, of course, Bryce Harper. Harper would make a lot of sense. He would bring left-handed power to the middle of the Phils lineup. Despite him being *ahem* unpopular in Philly, fans need to get past that. He was a little obnoxious when he first broke in, but he was a 19 year old who had always dominated every level of competition. Plus, he was playing for the Nationals. Of course we didn't like him. However, he's a stud and has mellowed out a little as he's matured. I would love to see him in Philly! While it's possible the Phils sign both Machado and Harper, it's very unrealistic. With the development of Aaron Judge, the Yankees may be more interested in Machado. Of course, Judge could always move to left (when Brett Gardner also becomes a free agent) or DH. Phillies GM Matt Klentak also happened to be in Baltimore when Machado was drafted. Ultimately, if Franco doesn't pan out there aren't many options for third basemen other than Machado, which leads me to believe Harper will be in navy blue pinstripes instead of red ones.
So who else could be an option? Another big name is Giancarlo Stanton who could be acquired through a trade. Despite multiple injuries, Stanton finished last season with over 200 career homeruns at only 26 years of age. On one hand, the Marlins might be interested in moving their best player to rebuild. On the other, he's signed through 2028 and he's still young, meaning there may be no rush. While I think a trade like this is possible (and more possible than trading for Mike Trout), I don't see it happening. Aside from Harper, the 2019 free agent outfielder class includes Charlie Blackmon, Michael Brantley, Brett Gardner, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Andrew McCutchen, and A.J. Pollock. Who they sign comes down to whether they want to sign someone to be the everyday leftfielder, or if they think they want to platoon someone with Williams or possibly Cozens. If they want an everyday player, Blackmon and Pollock make the most sense. Part of me thinks the organization will still believe Williams or Cozens has enough talent to make an impact at the major league level, particularly Williams who can play any outfield position. Williams, being a left-handed hitter, will need to be spelled with a right-handed hitter, which narrows the list down to Jones, McCutchen, and Pollock. Pollock will probably be the second best outfielder available after Harper, and will be looking to start somewhere without a possibility of sharing time. This leads me to believe that Jones and McCutchen, both former stud players now on the decline, will be the more likely options. I give McCutchen the edge.
So the backups? As I said, Williams seems to have a good shot at being what Altherr started as this season, a fourth outfielder who sees a decent amount of playing time. Williams can play every outfield position, so he could step in should an injury occur to any of the three starters. The final spot goes to Cam Perkins. Perkins has been an underrated prospect for some time. He is 26 and is hitting .279 with 3 homers at AAA. He's played every outfield position as well as firstbase. He would also be the only right-handed bat off the bench to go along with two switch-hitters and two lefties. The problem is that Perkins needs to be added to the 40 man roster soon, otherwise the Phils risk losing him through the Rule 5 draft. I'm not entirely sure the Phils will do that, but Daniel Nava, Michael Saunders, and Howie Kendrick are all free agents this year (assuming the $1 million Saunders buyout), which opens up three roster spots right there.
Speaking of Kendrick, it is not unreasonable to resign Howie Kendrick if he's willing to accept (at best) a platoon role. He doesn't have much power, but he's a career .289 hitter who brings leadership and can play almost anywhere. I have doubts that many teams will want to sign him to start anywhere, so if the Phils offer a two-year deal at the end of this season, it's entirely plausible he accepts. I also considered Andrew Pullin who is currently raking in AA (again, FirstEnergy Stadium effect needs to be considered). He's always been able to hit, but he hasn't always been able to stay healthy. Perkins would probably get the first crack at playing for the Phils, and if does well enough it makes Pullin expendable and left unprotected. In addition, Perkins would be the only right-handed bat off the bench, while Pullin is another lefty.
Summary
We are about 20 months or so away from knowing what the 2019 Phillies roster will look like. I'm just some dude who spends way too much time thinking about baseball and the Phillies. I could be pretty far off on a number of these projections. Still, it's fun to think about being a serious contender again, and 2019 may be the beginning of another stretch of success. I'm posting mostly for posterity to see how close I am to reality.
I admit there is at least one glaring issue with my roster: A lack of left-handed pitching. As for starters, that's mostly because all of the options currently within the organization are RHP. This is why I think it's likely Keuchel, Pomeranz, or Gonzalez is signed. I would prefer another lefty in the rotation, but this is partially the cards that are dealt. Out of the bullpen, I have two lefties which is generally what the Phils have been carrying this year.
There are certainly other names to keep in mind for 2018, including in-house guys like RHP Drew Anderson (AA), INF Malquin Canelo (AA), RHP Seranthony Dominguez, RHP Tom Eshelman (AA), LHP Elniery Garcia (suspended), LHP Brandon Liebrandt (AA), RHP Yacksel Rios (AA), OF Herlis Rodriguez (A), RHP Alberto Tirado (A), OF Jiandio Tromp (AA), and LHP Tom Windle (AA).
Still, I think my roster projection is pretty reasonable and pretty exciting!
It's well known that the Phillies have an above average list of prospects and money to burn. The general theory is that in 2019 the Phillies will begin a new chapter of being a perennial contender. With it being two years away, I wanted to take some time and project my 2019 Phillies roster. I'll get right to it, but will then show my work below, with consideration of all the in organization and free agent options that will reveal themselves between now and April 2019.
2019 PHILLIES ROSTER
Starting Pitchers
Zach Eflin
Jerad Eickhoff
Dallas Keuchel (L)
Jake Thompson
Nick Pivetta
Relief Pitchers
Ryan Madson
Hector Nerris
Ricardo Pinto
Edubray Ramos
Marc Rzepcyznski (L)
Joely Rodriguez (L)
Vincent Velasquez
Catchers
Jorge Alfaro
Andrew Knapp (S)
Infield
J.P. Crawford (L)
Rhys Hoskins
Scott Kingery
Jed Lowrie (S)
Manny Machado
Brock Stassi (L)
Outfield
Aaron Altherr
Odubel Herrera (L)
Andrew McCutchen
Cam Perkins
Nick Williams (L)
Opening Day Lineup
2B Kingery
CF Herrera (L)
1B Hoskins
3B Machado
RF Altherr
C Alfaro
LF McCutchen
SS Crawford (L)
P Keuchel
"Methodology"
Starting Pitchers
There is a litany of in-house options to consider here. I only see four of them sticking around, and I would expect only three rotations spots sooner than all five. Eickhoff seems to be a lock at this point. He's been a reliable workhorse ever since he debuted in Philly and will still only be 28. Eflin is mostly projection, but when he's been healthy he has pitched very well at the major league level. Thompson is more of a shot in the dark. He has dominated AAA between last year and this, but was awful with the Phils last year. I don't think that is what to expect to him. My other in-house choice is Pivetta, which I'm not 100% confident on. However, he has decent stuff, and I'll take him over all the other organizational choices. That includes Aaron Nola.
I really like Nola, but he has not been able to stay healthy. I have a hard time not seeing the Phillies going into 2019 knowing they can compete and sticking with a talented, but oft injured (with a funky delivery) pitcher. Mark Appel, Ben Lively, Ricardo Pinto, and Velasquez were all considerations as well. Lively and Pinto are the most likely possibilities to supplant Pivetta, but I see Pinto moving to the bullpen and Lively pitching for another team. Hopefully Appel will be a relief pitcher somewhere else and I'll come back to Velasquez later.
So I see one starting pitcher coming to the 2019 through free agency, and I've gone with Keuchel. This rotation will need a lefty, and the only real options after this seasons are Hector Santiago and Francisco Liriano. I'm pretty wary of Liriano's inconsistencies, though I'm intrigued by Santiago who is having an excellent year. Would they want to sign someone who is 30 years old and wait two or three years for contention and hope it works out? I happen to think the Phils are more likely to sign a free agent pitcher prior to the 2019 season. Other starting pitchers that could be considered before next year include Jake Arrieta, Trevor Cahill, Andrew Cashner, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn. In addition to the timing question, all of these guys are righties.
The 2019 class is really impressive, and includes five lefty possibilities, including Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Drew Pomeranz, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Drew Smyly. My thought is that the Phils aren't going to want someone just to fill out the rotation, which eliminates Ryu and Smyly. Keuchel won the Cy Young just two years ago, is having an impressive 2017 so far, and will still only be 31 in 2019. The biggest knock is that the front office has made it clear they aren't interested in big, long-term deals for pitchers. Keuchel will probably be able to command one somewhere. I still think between the money the organization will have, the need for an ace (and a lefty) will bring Keuchel to Philly. If not, Gonzalez and Pomeranz are realistic possibilities. Yu Darvish will also be a free agent at this time, but he's a RHP.
Relief Pitchers
Selecting a bullpen two years out is pretty difficult. More than any other position, you're evaluating not only the position itself, but others within the organization that could switch to this position. Meaning, I'm not only evaluating in-house relievers, but starters that could transition. On top of that, you'll see that my 2019 bullpen only has three holdovers from the current squad: Hector Nerris, Edubray Ramos, and Joely Rodriguez. All three are young, talented, and under team control at least until 2022. Neris might be the closer, but I'm actually going to say he will be setting up Vincent Velasquez. I know, I know, everyone is saying Velasquez will be closing sooner or later. I'm on board with the theory, because he's got filthy, nasty, unhittable stuff...but keeps getting hit. One theory says to let him be Nolan Ryan, but at this point it seems it would be better for the team and his career to let him close out games. A lot of great closers were once starters that couldn't put it all together. Within the organization, I also think Ricardo Pinto will be around, having been moved from starter to reliever. I took him over Lively, Nola, and Appe, all of whom I believe will be with other teams. Other in-house options I considered included Luis Garcia, Pat Neshek, Pat Venditte, and Tom Windle. None made the cut.
I don't believe we will see the Phils bring in much in the ways of free agency after this season, but options include Tyler Clippard, Tommy Hunter, Brandon Kintzler, Jake McGee, Juan Nicasio, Addison Reed, and Drew Storen. Out of that group, McGee is the only lefty. Of the in-house relievers I've chosen so far, only Rodriguez is a lefty.
However, the 2019 free agency class will draw a lot of Phillies attention. I went with one lefty and one righty. The lefty is Marc Rzepcyznski who has been pitching very well for Seattle this year, and I reunite the Phils with righty Ryan Madson. Madson is an insurance policy to close or set up in case Velasquez or Neris falter. The 2019 class has a lot of options, though, including Andrew Miller. Miller has turned into such a stud that some people forget he's not actually the closer in Cleveland, Cody Allen is (who also becomes a free agent in 2019). Someone is going to overpay for the left-handed Miller, and I hope it's not the Phils. Two other free agent lefties include former Phillie Jake Diekman and Sean Doolittle, both reasonable options as well. Free agent RHPs include Allen, Zach Britton, Jeurys Familia, Nate Jones, Shawn Kelly, Adam Ottavino, and Junichi Tazawa. I tend to believe that either Neris or Velasquez will nail down the closers role, which leaves Allen, Britton, and Familia out. The rest are good options, and it's entirely plausible one of them is signed instead of Madson.
Catchers
I think this position is pretty straight forward. Jorge Alfaro is the catcher of the future. He's hitting well in AAA and has a cannon for an arm. The real question is who will be his backup? Knapp is hitting decent in the majors right now, and I think his youth and being a switch-hitter gives him the edge over Rupp. If Rupp stuck around to back up Alfaro, I wouldn't be shocked, but Knapp has the edge.
It's not completely out of the question that the Phils bring in a veteran free agent catcher, though. It won't be this off season, as I'm sure they will want to give Rupp or Knapp a shot at backing up Alfaro. If that doesn't work out, prior to the 2019 season the Phils could consider Tyler Flowers or Hector Sanchez, who would both bring in extensive experience with not awful bats.
Infield
The starting first baseman will be either Tommy Joseph or Rhys Hoskins. Count me on Team Hoskins. I don't want to write off Joseph, but Hoskins brings a much higher ceiling. In 29 AAA games this year, Hoskins is hitting .337with 8 HRs and sports a 1.087 OPS. On top of that, since about midway through last season he has significantly cut down the strikeouts. This season, he has only 17 of them to go along with 14 walks. Joseph, after hitting 20 HRs last year in limited play, is off to an awful 2017 start. He's only hitting .218 and has on OBP below .300. The power is lacking too, with only 2 HRs and a .341 SLG. I still believe Joseph could be a guy who regularly hits between .250 and .260 with 25-30 HRs, which is respectable. He's a resilient player whose career seemed over at one point. I want him to be successful. The problem is less of what Joseph can do, but more about what Hoskins can do. Hoskins projects to be the better hitter, and is a natural first basemen (Joseph is still new to the position). Joseph has the potential to give some pop to the middle of the order. Hoskins has the potential to be a player that transforms the entire lineup.
Secondbase is tricky, but I'm going with Scott Kingery. He dominated at Clearwater last year and is doing the same at Reading this year. His homeruns are up, but that is likely reflective of playing in a tiny ballpark like FirstEnergy Stadium. Still, he's a guy who can hit for average, draws walks, steals bases, and hits doubles. I could care less whether he hits 10 HRs or 25 HRs, as that's not his game. However, there is an argument to be made for Cesar Hernandez, who deserves All Star recognition this year. He's hitting .333 with an OBP of .373. He's currently second in the NL in hits and fourth in runs, and only turns 27 later this month. However, these numbers are out of line with his career. This is his fifth season, and he's a career .283 hitter with an OBP of .353. Both these numbers are respectable and prove he deserves to be a starting second baseman at the major league level, but this post is all about projection. This season seems to be an anomaly, and the Phils would be wise to trade him by August. It would be easier to do this if they promote Kingery sooner rather than later to see what he can do against AAA pitching. Jesmuel Valentin is another option, but he seems more likely to be a utility player at the top level.
I don't care how awful the start of his season was, J.P. Crawford is the future starting shortstop for the Philadelphia Phillies. Even if he isn't the next Derek Jeter, we've been waiting on this to happen and he'll get his chance. The talent is there, and he's already started to turn his season around, raising his average from .089 to .151 in just a couple weeks. He's also walking more and striking out less, which has always been a major part of his game. Freddy Galvis will be a Phillie next year, but that's it. He may take over second if Hernandez is traded this year and the organization feels Crawford can handle himself. I think Galvis is good enough to start at shortstop or secondbase for other teams, and I'll miss him, but he's not the future at either position in Philly.
Obviously I went outside of the organization for a superstar third baseman. Franco just isn't the answer, although I do believe he's playing better than his 2017 stat line suggests. Maybe Franco can be a .260 or .270 hitter with 30 HRs, but that's still pales to what Manny Machado is capable of. Machado is straight up gonna get PAID between the 2018 and 2019 season. Common thought suggests that it's either going to be the Phils or the Yankees, with Bryce Harper signing with the other team (I'll discuss Harper more shortly). Franco doesn't become a free agent until 2022, so expect a trade after next season.
For the bench, I have Brock Stassi and Jed Lowrie. Stassi hasn't exactly excelled at the major league level yet, but he has a couple homerun and is drawing walks in his limited playing time. I think the bat will come around to go along with superb defense at first and his ability to play left as well. Lowrie can play all around the infield and will be a free agent after this season, with a lot of that experience at shortstop. He would be a great backup plan in case Crawford struggles and has a lot of playoff experience. Erick Aybar is a free agent after this season as well. This job could reasonably go to in-house options like Andrew Blanco or Jesmuel Valentin, but neither have as much experience at short. If the Phils wait until 2019 to see what Valentin can do, they could consider Jordy Mercer or Sean Rodriguez.
Outfield
Odubel Herrera is a lock. His average is a little lower this season so far, but I imagine it will be back around .280 or .290 by the end of the season. He's also turning into a Gold Glove centerfielder. Crazy. I've been a fan of Aaron Altherr for some time, but he's just either been injured or not quite able to put it all together. Ever since Howie Kendrick went down, Altherr has been electric. He's hitting for average, hitting for power, stealing bases, has a cannon for an arm, and can play all three outfield positions. He needs to show this year and next year he can do this over an entire season. If he does, he's a lock to start in 2019 as well.
Left field was the hardest to decide on. Current organizational options include Nick Williams, Dylan Cozens, Roman Quinn, Andrew Pullin, and Carlos Tocci. I'm not sold on any of them. Williams has bounced back okay from a very disappointing 2016, but the power hasn't developed and he walks to little while striking out too much. Cozens turned heads after a stellar 2016 in Reading, but between striking out way too much and playing in, again, tiny FirstEnergy Stadium, it was difficult to project his future. This season he's striking out a ton, but with an anemic average and fewer homeruns. Quinn has also disappointed in AAA this season, while Pullin is stuck in AA waiting to get promoted. He's regularly injured, so it's hard to tell what his future holds. Tocci has zero power, though he's hitting better and plays great outfield.
So I decided to look at free agency for the third outfield position. After this season, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and J.D. Martinez are all available, but I don't think they'll bring in a free agent that quickly. Next season will be about seeing what Altherr, Cozens, Quinn, and Williams can do. However, I think that will result in signing someone prior to the 2019 season. The big name is, of course, Bryce Harper. Harper would make a lot of sense. He would bring left-handed power to the middle of the Phils lineup. Despite him being *ahem* unpopular in Philly, fans need to get past that. He was a little obnoxious when he first broke in, but he was a 19 year old who had always dominated every level of competition. Plus, he was playing for the Nationals. Of course we didn't like him. However, he's a stud and has mellowed out a little as he's matured. I would love to see him in Philly! While it's possible the Phils sign both Machado and Harper, it's very unrealistic. With the development of Aaron Judge, the Yankees may be more interested in Machado. Of course, Judge could always move to left (when Brett Gardner also becomes a free agent) or DH. Phillies GM Matt Klentak also happened to be in Baltimore when Machado was drafted. Ultimately, if Franco doesn't pan out there aren't many options for third basemen other than Machado, which leads me to believe Harper will be in navy blue pinstripes instead of red ones.
So who else could be an option? Another big name is Giancarlo Stanton who could be acquired through a trade. Despite multiple injuries, Stanton finished last season with over 200 career homeruns at only 26 years of age. On one hand, the Marlins might be interested in moving their best player to rebuild. On the other, he's signed through 2028 and he's still young, meaning there may be no rush. While I think a trade like this is possible (and more possible than trading for Mike Trout), I don't see it happening. Aside from Harper, the 2019 free agent outfielder class includes Charlie Blackmon, Michael Brantley, Brett Gardner, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Andrew McCutchen, and A.J. Pollock. Who they sign comes down to whether they want to sign someone to be the everyday leftfielder, or if they think they want to platoon someone with Williams or possibly Cozens. If they want an everyday player, Blackmon and Pollock make the most sense. Part of me thinks the organization will still believe Williams or Cozens has enough talent to make an impact at the major league level, particularly Williams who can play any outfield position. Williams, being a left-handed hitter, will need to be spelled with a right-handed hitter, which narrows the list down to Jones, McCutchen, and Pollock. Pollock will probably be the second best outfielder available after Harper, and will be looking to start somewhere without a possibility of sharing time. This leads me to believe that Jones and McCutchen, both former stud players now on the decline, will be the more likely options. I give McCutchen the edge.
So the backups? As I said, Williams seems to have a good shot at being what Altherr started as this season, a fourth outfielder who sees a decent amount of playing time. Williams can play every outfield position, so he could step in should an injury occur to any of the three starters. The final spot goes to Cam Perkins. Perkins has been an underrated prospect for some time. He is 26 and is hitting .279 with 3 homers at AAA. He's played every outfield position as well as firstbase. He would also be the only right-handed bat off the bench to go along with two switch-hitters and two lefties. The problem is that Perkins needs to be added to the 40 man roster soon, otherwise the Phils risk losing him through the Rule 5 draft. I'm not entirely sure the Phils will do that, but Daniel Nava, Michael Saunders, and Howie Kendrick are all free agents this year (assuming the $1 million Saunders buyout), which opens up three roster spots right there.
Speaking of Kendrick, it is not unreasonable to resign Howie Kendrick if he's willing to accept (at best) a platoon role. He doesn't have much power, but he's a career .289 hitter who brings leadership and can play almost anywhere. I have doubts that many teams will want to sign him to start anywhere, so if the Phils offer a two-year deal at the end of this season, it's entirely plausible he accepts. I also considered Andrew Pullin who is currently raking in AA (again, FirstEnergy Stadium effect needs to be considered). He's always been able to hit, but he hasn't always been able to stay healthy. Perkins would probably get the first crack at playing for the Phils, and if does well enough it makes Pullin expendable and left unprotected. In addition, Perkins would be the only right-handed bat off the bench, while Pullin is another lefty.
Summary
We are about 20 months or so away from knowing what the 2019 Phillies roster will look like. I'm just some dude who spends way too much time thinking about baseball and the Phillies. I could be pretty far off on a number of these projections. Still, it's fun to think about being a serious contender again, and 2019 may be the beginning of another stretch of success. I'm posting mostly for posterity to see how close I am to reality.
I admit there is at least one glaring issue with my roster: A lack of left-handed pitching. As for starters, that's mostly because all of the options currently within the organization are RHP. This is why I think it's likely Keuchel, Pomeranz, or Gonzalez is signed. I would prefer another lefty in the rotation, but this is partially the cards that are dealt. Out of the bullpen, I have two lefties which is generally what the Phils have been carrying this year.
There are certainly other names to keep in mind for 2018, including in-house guys like RHP Drew Anderson (AA), INF Malquin Canelo (AA), RHP Seranthony Dominguez, RHP Tom Eshelman (AA), LHP Elniery Garcia (suspended), LHP Brandon Liebrandt (AA), RHP Yacksel Rios (AA), OF Herlis Rodriguez (A), RHP Alberto Tirado (A), OF Jiandio Tromp (AA), and LHP Tom Windle (AA).
Still, I think my roster projection is pretty reasonable and pretty exciting!
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